Great War 1912 - Mobilization

The Chairman of Council of Ministers of the Russian Empire, Pyotr Stolypin, having survived an assassination attempt in 1911 continued his duties. He would attempt to steer his nation away from war in November 1912 but fail.

The Balkan War was in full swing. Bulgaria was leading Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro on successful campaigns against the Ottoman Empire. Germany and Austria-Hungary were remaining relatively uninvolved in the conflict. The Kaiser was still upset over the overthrow of his friend, Sultan Abdul Hamid II in 1909. Germany would follow a policy of "free fight and no favor", allowing the conflict to play itself out. Despite Serbian gains in the area, including gaining access to the Adriatic were threats to Austrian power in the region the Austro-Hungarians did not mobilize and enter the fight.

Seeing the lack of Austrian involvement as weakness, Russian Minister of War Vladimir Sukhomlinov saw an opportunity to move against the Turks and have a chance at finally seizing Constantinople. Russia could not afford to allow the city to fall into Bulgaria's hands. On 22 November 1912 Sukhomlinov prepared plans for a 'partial' mobilization of Russian forces from Warsaw through Kiev and all the way to Odessa. They could move into the Balkans and either 'aid' the Bulgarian faction and claiming Constantinople for Russia, or they could crush the Balkan armies and seize the city anyway.

The next day, 23 November, the Tsar called an emergency meeting of his most important ministers. There were to discuss Sukhomlinov's plan and other options available. Chairman Stolypin warned against the mobilization. He felt that the Austrians would see it as a direct threat and mobilize themselves. At that point war with the Turks, Austria, and even Germany would be a real possibility.

While a number of other ministers were in agreement with Stolypin's position he was growing increasingly unpopular due to continued pushes for reforms. The same unpopularity that led to the attempt on his life a year earlier kept enough ministers from siding with him to defeat the Minister of War's plan. In a narrow decision the Tsar and his ministers decided on a partial mobilization against the Ottoman Empire and possibly Bulgaria.

Russian mobilization began 24 November (7 December 1912 Gregorian Calendar). The Austrians would react. Mobilizing their military forces to deploy against the Bulgarian alliance and to reinforce border regions with Russia, in particular Przemyśl Fortress. It would not take long for war to spread.

Information on the historical figures can be found on Wikipedia or by using Google, Bing, or whatever search engines you like. I used a couple books as reference when plugging away at this timeline:

1) The Russian Origins of the First World War by Sean McMeekin
2) Blood on the Snow by Graydon A. Tunstall

A night at The Tale of Tsar Saltan

On 1 September 1911 (14 September in the Gregorian calendar) Russian prime minister Pyotr Stolypin attended a performance of the opera, The Tale of Tsar Saltan, at the Kiev Opera House. Tsar Nicholas II was also in attendance. The opera was about the betrayal of a Tsar by the older sisters of his wife.

During the intermission a man named Dmitri Bogrov approached Stolypin and drew a revolver. Two shots rang out and Stolypin dropped, a small spray of blood emerging from him. Bogrov was quickly wrestled to the ground and disarmed. Upon examination the prime minister was alive. He had a gunshot wound in his arm and received two broken ribs from the impact of the second bullet into his bulletproof vest.

How Bogrov entered the opera house with a weapon while the Tsar was in attendance was a mystery, a mystery few seemed interested in solving. The would-be-assassin was hanged three days after the attempt and further investigations were stopped by order of the Tsar. A supposed anarchist terrorist was able to get close enough to possibly kill the Tsar and that same Tsar seemed uninterested in determining if anyone else was involved or how those sworn to protect him could allow an armed man so close. The quick execution of the terrorist and the lack of investigation was troubling.

The Prime Minister received the message - even if one wasn't being sent. He felt that it was not a random anarchist who tried to kill him but someone in the government wanted him dead. Just as in the opera the Tsaritsa and her son were betrayed and nearly killed in a barrel at sea he became more subtle in his drive for reforms and in the pursuit of rebels, but remained unpopular with many of the other ministers and military leaders. He would eventually resign in disgust with the outbreak of the Great War in November 1912.

No magic swan arrived to keep Russia out of the war.

NOTES
A possible timeline I'm developing where World War I begins a couple of years early. I hope to post more in the coming weeks to see how things develop. If you have any ideas or opinions please feel free to leave a comment.
1) Some information on the assassination of Pyotr Stolpin over at HistoryToday.com
2) A synopsis of opera "The Tale of Tsar Saltan" - this is the opera that The Flight of the Bumblebee came from. Also of note is that I've been subjected to that particular music countless times thanks to it being the theme for the old Green Hornet radio program!
3) A YouTube clip of the music of the opera I listened to for part of the time I was working on this post
4) Image of Pyotr Stolypin from Wikimedia Commons - public domain in the USA due to age.